In a complex situation associated with large aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, scenario analysis can help to map the uncertain future and to assess the range of plausible futures that may develop depending on assumptions about the forcing scenario. Thus, scenario analysis is a tool to study the dependency of the most uncertain aspect of the projections into the future on certain assumptions.

For the climate change projection, which depend to a large extent on the global development of emissions of greenhouse gases, the IPCC has employed a scenario-based approach to get a picture of the plausible trajectory of global temperature change as well as regional variability. In the case, of LSL, we cannot directly base the analysis on emission scenarios because of the lack of models that would reliably predict LSL for a given emission scenario. Therefore, here we consider scenarios of the main forcing of LSL, i.e., steric and ocean circulation changes, glaciers, ice sheets, land water storage, and vertical land motion. For these factors, we can assume different scenarios and combine them to get LSL projections.